Worst case scenario

Turkey does not want war with Syria. It wants political control and influence in Syria as part of its regional power game without sending troops. That is not looking likely. The Ottomans had to station its capable commanders in Damascus as the regional seat of their power. Turkish Kurdistan would find it convenient to launch an armed struggle for independence. In that case Turkey might consider a full scale ground operation to normalize the situation back to pre Arab Spring stage.

 

To live under Assad’s regime is bad but to come under foreign attacks is worse. Military intervention in Syria is likely to split the country as in Iraq. Kurds would probably not mind befriending traditional foes of Baathist Syria. Turkey would obviously need to move fast to avoid any grand pact between Kurds, Syrian revolutionaries and their supporters down south. In that case, Turkey could join Iran, China and Russia (three non NATO countries) spelling disappointment to its western backers inside NATO. Thats unless Turkey can influence NATO to join the Syrian intervention. UN would ofcourse be unable to lend support to that since Russia and China will surely use their veto powers in the UNSC.

 

The Syrian crisis was dubbed as “worst case scenario” by president Gul.

 

GUVECCI (Turkey) – Turkish President Abdullah Gul said yesterday that the “worst-case scenarios” were now playing out in Syria, and Turkey would do everything necessary to protect itself as its army fired back for a sixth day after a shell from Syria flew over the border.

Mr Gul said the violence in Turkey’s southern neighbour, where a revolt against President Bashar Al Assad has evolved into a civil war that threatens to draw in regional powers, could not go on indefinitely and that Mr Assad’s fall was inevitable.

“The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in Syria … Our government is in constant consultation with the Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately as you see and it will continue to be done,” Mr Gul said.

“There will be a change, a transition sooner or later … It is a must for the international community to take effective action before Syria turns into a bigger wreck and further blood is shed, that is our main wish.”

Turkey’s armed forces have bolstered their presence along the 900km border with Syria in recent days and have been responding in kind to gunfire and shelling spilling across from the south, where Mr Assad’s forces have been battling rebels who control swathes of territory.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon said the escalation of the conflict along the Turkey-Syria border, as well as the impact of the crisis on Lebanon, were “extremely dangerous”.

“The situation in Syria has dramatically worsened. It is posing serious risks to the stability of Syria’s neighbours and the entire region,” he said in France.

Mr Ban said UN and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi would be heading back to the region this week.

The exchanges with Turkey mark the most serious cross-border violence in Syria’s revolt against Mr Assad, which began in March last year with peaceful protests for reform and has evolved into a civil war with sectarian overtones. REUTERS

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