A Loose Overview and Practical Interpretation of John Foran’s Thesis on the Causal Factors Behind Revolutions



In his book, Taking Power, On the Origins of Third World Revolutions (2005, Cambridge University Press), sociologist John Foran calculates a series of causal factors behind the development and success of revolutions.

According to Foran, the necessary ingredients for nearly all revolutions in the 20th century have been:

  • Dependent development.

  • Exclusionary or colonial rule, or democratic polities. 

  • Political cultures of opposition.

  • An economic downturn.

  • A world-system opening.

  • A revolutionary outbreak which encompasses a multi-class, -national, -gender coalition.

Additionally, as part of the outcome of revolutionary movements, successful revolutions are those which develop under the guidance and protection of a centralized and organized force in the form of a post-revolutionary state. Also, despite the initial success of a revolution, features of dependent development never go away quickly and internal forms of oppression may reappear.

What this means:

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Behind Enemy Lines: Strategic Theory for Revolutionary Work in the Imperialist Core

Socialist revolution – is it crazy romanticism or is it the need of the hour, for the so-called “ThirdWorld” countries?



Analysis of Classes, Trajectory of Worldwide Revolution, and the Problems of First Worldism

As has been outlined in the work of various Third Worldists and those near it, the world is not as simple as the dogmatic ‘Marxist’ understanding of ‘workers vs. bosses.’ Moreover, the precise explanation of ‘who are our enemies, who are our friends’ is understood by revolutionary Marxists to be of primarily significance. Thus, we are obliged to be more precise in our class analysis than rephrasing rhetorical passages from the Communist Manifesto.

A basic sketch of modern classes (nevertheless, with room for improvement) is laid out in my previous essay entitled, On Global People’s War and Global New Democratic Revolution:

  • Direct representatives and holders of finance capital
  • The comprador bourgeoisie of the Third World
  • Bourgeois-nationalist forces of the Third World
  • A section of embourgeoisfied, largely non-productive and hence wholly parasitic workers: i.e. the working petty-bourgeoisie…

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Inter-imperialist rivalry and civil strife in Ukraine

The battle for Crimea is a window to the hidden agendas kept in the closets of European oligarchs. Russian empire is no better than the EuroAtlantic one’s desire to control territories and all the resources that lie underneath. The race is as much for strategic control of the Black Sea as it is for occupation of land mass which provides food security. Punches thrown from Washington to Moscow over Ukraine are really for the diminished control of pipelines than over the lives lost in protests.
The world is going through a strategic re-organization based on re-emergence of Russia as an imperial power hungry for its own colonization of weaker nations in Europe, Middle East and Africa. The battle for Ukraine is only the begining of another codl race for world supremacy.



Does unrest drop from the sky? Most certainly not; like any other political phenomenon, the kind of civil unrest we can observe in Ukraine is a result of determinant economic, social and political factors which in convergence transform into open struggle, which cost the lives of 75 people so far. The main entry point for an analysis is the class alliances in Ukraine that internalize the economic domination that both the SCO-aligned Russian bourgeoisie and the EU-aligned German bourgeoisie (backed by other Euroamerican powers) and reproduce it.

The protests and riots we are witnessing in Ukraine were triggered by the Yanukovich government’s acceptance of a $15 billion aid package offered by the Russian government and the concomitant decline of an Association Agreement offered by the European Union. This proposed agreement would’ve imposed austerity-tied loans on Ukraine, it included several security policies, provisions that would have subordinated key aspects of Ukraine’s…

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